Экономика

Экономист Масленников: причина ослабления курса рубля – резкое ухудшение платежного торгового баланса

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Курс рубля падает практически весь июнь. На прошлой неделе стоимость российской валюты снизилась до 85 рублей за доллар. Экономист Никита Масленников в беседе с Glavnyenovosti.ru рассказал, почему это происходит и как это исправить.

Никита Масленников, руководитель направления «Финансы и экономика» Института современного развития, объяснил, что у ослабления курса рубля есть фундаментальная причина – резкое ухудшение платежного торгового баланса. Это связано с сокращением экспорта и ростом импорта, в том числе параллельного.

«Сокращается профицит текущего счета платежного баланса – это фундаментальная причина ослабления валюты. В любой экономике такая динамика будет означать формирование устойчивого тренда на ослабление валюты», – добавил экономист.

Pravda Komsomolskaya/Russian Look

Кроме того, на рубле отражаются разговоры о новом пакете антироссийских санкций США и ЕС. Особенно международных игроков беспокоят вторичные санкции: ограничения против тех, кто не соблюдает ранее введенный ограничения. В дополнении к этому, все внимательно следят за новостями, которые идут от компаний, работающих с РФ: то одна, то другая фирма сталкивается с трудностями в плане расчетов.

«Все это влияет на рубль, в том числе и потому что в условиях новой реальности платежи идут долго. Интервал между поставкой продукций и платежом значительно увеличился по сравнению с прошлым годом», – рассказал Никита Масленников.

По словам экономиста, многие аналитики сегодня прогнозируют ослабление рубля ниже уровня 85 за доллар. Однако он настроен более оптимистично и считает подобные прогнозы преждевременными. Важно понимать, что скоро российскую валюту поддержит налоговый период. В июле всегда вырастает спрос на рубли, так как корпорации начинают платить налоги»

«Плюс еще не сформировались мировые нефтецены. Сейчас они в интервале 75-80 долларов за баррель. Если они вырастут, что сейчас и прогнозируется, то это поможет рублю укрепиться. Это поспособствует улучшению торгового баланса», – объяснил эксперт.

wikipedia.org/DigiGal DZiner/CC BY-SA 4.0

Конечно, рубль не вернется к 60-70 за доллар, но зафиксируется в коридоре 80-85, считает собеседник Glavnyenovosti.ru. А к концу году, когда стабилизируются цены на энергоносители, рубль может даже приблизиться в 80 за доллар или ниже.

«Паниковать по поводу курса рубля нет никакой необходимости. Нужно понимать, что это просто нынешние условия. Чтобы укрепить российскую национальную валюту, мы должны переориентировать наши экспортные потоки и выстроить с другими странами энергичные платежно-расчетные отношения в национальных валютах. При этом нужно иметь в виду: хотим мы или нет, но доллар в ближайшие несколько лет доллар будет продолжать играть роль меры стоимости. Для нас курс доллара, к сожалению, до сих пор имеет принципиальное значение для оценки эффективности нашей экономической политики», – заключил Никита Масленников.

Стоит добавить, что многочисленные эксперты не рекомендуют обычным гражданам вкладывать средства в иностранную валюту. Аналитики подчеркивают, что хранить средства нужно в той валюте, на которую человек может купить себе еду и другие товары. При этом важно учитывать, что российские банки ужесточают требования относительно наличных доллара и евро. Если купюра будет повреждена – помята, порвана, иметь посторонние надписи, даже самые незначительные – в пункте обмена ее просто не примут.

Ранее Glavnyenovosti.ru писало о том, почему Запад не начнет выполнять свою часть зерновой сделки.

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